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Emergence
of Indian E-media
Stations : The How & Why Of Its
Market Dynamics
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Sudhir Voleti |
| Strategic
Marketing Research Team |
| In
the Indian context, the market is ripe for one media player
to move in early, move in big and be the first to ignite the
Network Externality cycle that takes him way beyond the reach
of competition. Here lies the opportunity for trend-setting,
the rule-making for and the redefining of the contours of an
emerging industry.
Net [based]
businesses come primarily in two categories:
lThe FLOW based-model: Where the Net is merely another medium
for pushing an Old Economy business i.e. attempting to make
the Net suit an existing business.
Eg. Amazon, Fabmart
lThe SOURCE-based model: Where the business itself is re-invented
to suit the net! [Eg. Dell, ICICI direct etc]
Current media/entertainment sites on the Net [of the non-chat
variety] are mainly of the Flow-based model hue. Consider
the case of Sa-re-ga-ma.com, which essentially seeks to push
Old Economy, Net-incompatible low-value items like cassettes
and CDs through the Net. Or the case of SonyMusic.com that
sells album tracks at $1 per track.
Will they
ever see a great success in sales? NO! Why?
lTarget segment: Computer-savvy high SEC individuals who would
soon have no incentive to buy music on the net when the same
is available in peer-to-peer networks in new formats [mp3
etc]
lCore product: Music/audio/video is digitisable and the cassette/CD
represents an inefficient high-overhead way to deliver this
core product. Even where the music is offered as a direct
download, it is not free.
lValue Proposition: Combine the above two and suddenly the
value proposition being offered to the customer doesnt
look as attractive anymore [as in why should THAT customer
(their particular target segment) be willing to pay for the
services on offer?]
lTV and radio are free because advertisers bear the costs.
B2C history is replete with examples of companies biting the
dust because for some, their projections of ad revenues went
haywire and for others the C part of the storythe
consumerthey bitterly realised, was increasingly getting
averse to paying for anything on the Net.
lThe reason why foreign companies have not yet taken to this
could be the heavy investments they have already made in their
offline operations. For example, Sony Music sells
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How
Indian Net Usage Rates are
set to explode
HCLs INFYNET, Punj Llyods
SPECTRANET offering bandwidths of 32kbps to home and corporate
users through firm-managed cable modems.
E-com activity to touch Rs 252
Billion by 2005 in India with 90 per cent in B2B
MBL estimates 4.5 million net
users in India with 85 cent in 8 cities alone
Net-via cable opportunities. The
RPG group is already into this.
Hardware improvements whereby
from one appliance [say, a WebTV or PC] , different lines
can be drawn into different parts
of the home to cater exclusively to different people in
the
family! |
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its
music on the Net at $1 per album track and is known to have
heavily invested in offline facilities.
It is here that the opportunity for a source-based model of
business to enter the Indian market lies, not only to capture
media station space but to |
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actually
create the market, become the trendsetter, the rule maker
et al.
The core concept: Consider the idea of a one-stop media
station on the Net which engages in Net broadcasts of
music, news, ex-TV serials, soaps, movies and what-have-you
using direct streaming audio and video feeds.
The
assumptions underlying the source-based
one-stop media station business are:
Substantial rise in PC penetration and Internet
appliances [amongst the target segment]
Significant drop in broadband access costs
Home PCs playing direct streaming media
using low-cost broadband access.
The
core characteristics are all source-based model
paradigms.
Prime among them is the detachment of the business completely
from the physical medium. [Look at the savings in costs
and investments. The logic goes further to say that any investments
in physical infrastructure of the non-hardware variety will
become a liability to source-model companies.]
The core product is transmittable [or digitizable, rather].
Hence, the marginal costs of storage, replication and distribution
are tiny compared to comparable physical systems.
The mass-customization phenomenon:
Leveraging the inherent strengths of the Net to offer what
the consumer wants, the way he wants it.
For example, offering the customer the facility of both customizing
his playlist in his individual account [akin to the Winamp
playlist] or other playlists as company broadcasts.
lThe Times FM revenue model* [with minor modifications] seems
best suited for this purpose. Times FM, one of the most successful
FM radio channels in India, charged around 80np per song it
played from music companies and its ad rates per second were
also competitive and attractive. It managed to attract this
revenue because it could boast a loyal high-end user base.
Result: It did well and almost killed the mismanaged A.I.R
FM business. A similar model for our media station would mean
similar fundamentals in business philosophy and in the customer
base.
Reasons why this model will work hinge on one principal factor.
The trick is to kickstart a self-reinforcing cycle whereby
our media station becomes THE stop-shop for Indian mediastreaming
and live.
Once set in motion, the self-reinforcing cycle does exactly
thatit reinforces its own position in the marketplace
and in customer mindspace and its market power grows exponentiallya
phenomenon known in management jargon as Positive Network
Externalities. That will push everybody to the stationcustomers
[raising the user base], fresh talent and content supply [artistes/bands
in music; content providers etc] and even other media companies
[attempting to popularise their own products on this station].
Revenue thus accrues from this more stable B2B source.
There is space in here only for one or maybe two large players
who will dominate the market.
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Mass
customization works both ways
It becomes a rich opportunity for the media station
to collect information about its users viewing/seeking
behavior. An extensive database can be built about what
the emerging trends will be like in the radio/music
/ TV /bookselling /newspaper & magazine markets
as the users of the media station facility are early
adopters, predicting trends in each of these markets
about what will likely sell in the Old Economy markets.
Needless to say, such a rich database can be put to
rich, commercial use. Credit card companies in the West
were the first to see this opportunity and apply it
in practice, resulting in legal issues like Who
owns the Information? Privacy Law violations are
also being investigated as regards commercial exploitation
of personal information. |
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Where
else is the Web-casting
phenomenon happening
in the world?
l Broadcast.com: claims to be the original webcasting
site. Contains news, music, video, events etc . Is slick,
professional, extensive and nowadays increasingly live.
l InterneTV.com: This site has everythingmusic,
video, film, performing arts, original programming, live,
audio, even pay-per-view and a variety of video players.
l Filmfilm.com: offers to stream your films over the Internet
free! An example of free enterprise at its best!
l Alwaysindependentfilms.com and cheesewars.com are other
webcasting dotcoms catching up.
A boost to the strategic groups concept are others who
are attempting to build the user base and some who are
already using their existing bases for webcasting applications
are the traditional music files online exchange siteswww.scour.com
has tied up with Marimax to leverage its 3-4 million user
base and transmit Marimaxs full-length movies, animated
shows as well as short trailers over the Net. |
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Prospects
& potential players in the Web-cast/media station
business
Traditional Media companies like Bennett Coleman &
Co, New Economy entrants like the RPG group, the Reliance
group etc, foreign companies like MTV, Rupert Murdochs
Star Networks, large cable companies or Multi-service
operators [MSOs], big name music companies like HMV or
their retail fronts like Music World etc. |
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Competitive
Advantages in the Web-casting Station Sphere:
lA first-mover advantage with offline media business experience.
The media station needs to have a high-profile national launch
to gain enough popularity across different user classes in India
lRequisite deep pockets.
lPowerful Brand Equity: Brand name that will spell familiarity
and thus entice potential users into giving the concept a trial.
After that, and this is crucial, the Network Externality cycle
will have to start off, and there lies the gamble. The critical
success factors depending on whether or not the Network Externality
Cycle will start off are difficult to predict.
lPower base and entry barriers: Our media station sets the rules.
lOnce the Network Externality Cycle is set in motion, its market
power grows so fast that potential competition will be hard
put to catch up. The resources they will need to commit will
be tremendous. A case in the point is the fact that Hotmail
and Yahoo are still No.1 even though it is widely accepted that
there are better e-mail systems and portals available for free
on the Net.
lWith continuous innovation, a rising user base and the best
brand name in the market, our media station too gets to occupy
a similar privileged position on the Indian Net landscape. It
becomes the trend-setter, the rule-maker and actually has the
opportunity to shape the emerging market!
lLegal issues: As the Net market grows and its legal-regulatory
framework is strengthened, there is a chance that copyright
infringements may block a lot of activity in the media broadcasting
sphere. This then pares down the list of potentials considerably
and now shall permit only those having substantial rights to
a lot of popular media entertainment offline to become big players
in this field.
Put everything together and we have a huge opportunity for some
enterprising player [or alliance of players] sharing the above
broad criteria.
All in all, with the Net set to explode in usage in urban India,
there may be at most 18 months-2 years at hand before an aspiring
player fills up this space and kickstarts his own Network Externality
Cycle. And once that happens, it is likely he will be out of
reach of competition. |
References:
1. Micheal Porter , Competitive strategy
2. F. Kolakata , Frontiers in e-commerce
3. Valeri Zeithmeil, The Entertainment Economy
4. The Internet
[4a] www.spectranet.com [Website of an ambitious Net-through-cable
player]
[4b] www.sony.com
[4c] www.ciol.com [ringside view of the developments in the
cable industry]
[4d] www.channelok.com [currently webcasts Indian music over
the net] |
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