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Special
Media Issue
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Making
the right connection
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L.V.Krishnan
CEO, TAM Media Research Pvt. Ltd. (A.C. Nielsen - IMRB
Venture). |
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No,
this is not an article that laments the dearth of good
programming and offers suggestions on how channels/production
houses should come up with superlative programming which
will lead to TVRs shooting through the roof. This is an
article that just, well, asks for a chance. A chance for
the viewer to at least get to sample the channel. A lot
of time and energy in a television channel is spent on
the programming aspect without sufficient emphasis being
placed on the distribution aspect. This is more so in
the case of new channels which, in their enthusiasm, forget
ground rules. And when the channel fails to garner the
requisite ratings, there is heavy discussion on how ‘we
should have concentrated on blockbuster movies rather
than soaps’ or even on how ‘the sampling plan of the rating
agency is skewed’. This is akin to blaming only the positioning/advertising
of an FMCG brand rather than inquiring whether the distribution
was in place and consumers had an opportunity to sample
the brand. |
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Sure, programming is important in the marketing mix,
but ignoring the distribution aspect is something that
even the top channels pay for dearly. Thus providing
for the OTS — Opportunity to Sample — is of paramount
importance, especially for newer channels.
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Setting
the stage...or shall we say ground?
A look at the
television ownership pattern in India tells you why the
distribution aspect is so important (Table 1).
A look at the table shows us that the proportion of B/W
to colour TV Sets is anywhere from 86:14 (for Bihar) to
32:68 (for Kerala), the average being a 70:30 ratio. The
ratio is obviously weighed down by the fact that states
with a higher number of TV sets are precisely those which
have a high proportion of B/W sets, thus tilting the average
towards B/W sets.
Even if metros are considered separately they do not exactly
present a rosy picture for colour TV sets (Table 2).
Thus, even a
metro like Delhi has about 50 per cent sets as B/W sets.
Now consider the fact that a B/W TV can carry a maximum
of 12 channels. By law, a cable operator has to carry
the three DD channels. So, typically, in a state like
Maharashtra, the way a channel line-up would be is DD1,
DD2, DD 10 (Sahyadri), Star Plus, Sony, Zee. These total
six channels. Then you have about two channels of the
cable operator himself and now the total is eight. So
there are a maximum of four channels left in a viewer’s
TV set. Given that there are potentially about 125 channels
that can be received by a viewer in India, one is left
with 117(125-8) channels that are competing for those
four channels. So, do you want to, as a channel director,
concentrate on programming, core audience and daypart
strategies before at least giving the viewer a chance
to view your channel?
Making the right connection
Availability
of a channel is computed by tracking the channel across
five typical frequency bands:
1. Prime Band
2. Colour Band
3. S-Band
4. Hyper Band
5. UHF Band
These bands
are given in decreasing order of accessibility. The first
11 channels in a TV set are those of the Prime Band (thus
channels in a prime band will be accessible to a B/W TV
set owner as well). The next is that of the Colour band
and so on.
This availability is measured by TAM’s propriety CONNECTAM
that looks at the availability of a channel in C&S households.
Till now, it
is hoped that the importance of connectivity is realised
in so far as at least giving the viewer a chance to sample
the programming. However, another question that comes
up is whether improvement in the channel’s availability
(S-Band to Colour for instance) will lead to increased
viewership levels.
The best way
to illustrate this is by way of taking a case study. .
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The
proportion of B/W to colour TV Sets is anywhere from
86:14 (for Bihar) to 32:68 (for Kerala), the average
being a 70:30 ratio. The ratio is obviously weighed
down by the fact that states with a higher number of
TV sets are precisely those which have a high proportion
of B/W sets, thus tilting the average towards B/W sets.
Even if metros are considered separately, they do not
exactly present a rosy picture for colour TV sets..
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CASE
STUDY
I. Objective
To test the
following hypothesis:
‘Everytime the channel availablilty goes up in the P/C/S
band, there should be a proportionate increase in viewership
for the channel as well.’
To test the above hypothesis it would then be necessary
to correlate two factors: Availability and Viewership.
TABLE 3 : Connectivity Report for new channel X Week 13
beginning 25/03/01
Availability
As mentioned
above, availability is measured by CONNECTTAM.
I. Apart from
the Panel Homes that are used to record viewership data,
TAM also has a ‘Parallel Homes’ set-up which tracks the
movement of channels in a C&S household’s TV set. The
data from the Panel homes and Parallel Homes are matched,
processed and finally result in an output known as the
Connectivity Report of the form as shown in Table 3 above:
II. Though Table
3 shows only data pertaining to a few markets, it is generated
for all the markets (27 towns) covered by the TAM viewership
data. Due to the fact that the data is released after
a gap of only four days from the last day of the week,
the data is a reliable instant indicator and can be used
to validate distribution efforts.
How does one read the table?
As can be seen
in Table 3, the bulk of the channel’s distribution lies
in the S-Band across markets. While the Rest of Tamil
Nadu market is the best in terms of availability (bulk
in the Prime Band i.e in the first 11/12 channels of a
TV set), the channel has a long way to go as far as Bangalore
is concerned. The Rest of Karnataka market doesn’t do
too badly with a significant mass in the Colour band.
But non-availability (the ‘none’ figure) is as high as
65 per cent in the market. This shows that either the
cable operators need convincing to actually carry the
channel, or the universe of TV sets in this specific market
is extremely skewed to the low-end TV sets, thus resulting
in a large proportion of homes not able to view the channel
telecast on S band, Hyper band or UHF band frequency.
Hence, the distribution team needs to chalk out their
strategy in lifting the channel into lower frequency bands
like Prime or Colour bands. Viewership
This has been
measured by looking at the Reach (1+ min). The reason
TVRs have not been used as a measure of viewership in
this case is that availability can only encourage sampling
of the channel. From then on, the programming aspect takes
over — which is when TVRs would be an accurate indicator.
This single sampling moment, however, may convert a non-viewer
to a viewer, especially for a new/niche channel. Therefore,
distribution of the channel helps in generating ‘trials’
for the channel and programming helps in building ‘loyalty’
for the channel.
II. In the present
study, we have selected two competitive channels; A and
B with roughly similar programming within the Mumbai market.
Data for 21 weeks was studied i.e from July 1st Week 2000
to November 3rd week 2000. It must be noted that Channel
1 had an edge over Channel 2 in viewership measured by
TVRs.
III. Viewership-Availability
Looking at Channel 1 (See graph on left)
More or
less stable viewership patterns across the 21 weeks —
the only perceptible drops seen in Weeks 38 and 41 when
the availability has also fallen, either in the same week
or in the week just before it.
Similarly looking at Channel 2 (See graph on Pg 38)
Though the connectivity
has increased and fallen for Channel 2 just as for Channel
1, between weeks 37 and 39, there is a major increase
in viewership levels and a marginal fall after the connectivity
has dropped back to normal. It is seen that the viewership
has risen a little prior to the distribution levels going
up, pointing to a coordinated distribution-programming
effort.
Having looked at these figures, let’s now look at from
where the viewers in Bombay tune for Channel 1 and Channel
2.
Channel 2 has
a marginal edge over Channel 1 in catering to Mumbai homes
on the Prime/Colour band.
But does availability in S Band bring in additional viewership?
Channel availability
was correlated with viewership data at 1min+ and 5min+.
The coefficients were clearly in favour of S-Band. This
means that at least in Mumbai, the channel availability
on S-Band did not hamper the present viewing of the channel.
Since connectivity is the only factor that is being studied,
linear correlation has been resorted to (see chart immediately
below). In fact an SEC skew analysis showed that the channels
A and B had a pronounced skew towards SEC A and SEC B
which may be because of the penetration of higher order
TV sets with ability to receive channels telecast on S-Band
frequencies.
Looking at both Channels 1 & 2 together (see graph
above)
As seen above,
Channel 2 is bridging the availability gap, thus bridging
the viewership gap as well. The slopes of the linear reach
graphs clearly tell us that Channel 2 is growing at a
faster rate than Channel 1.
So, does this mean that higher channel availability
on P/C/S band alone will drive up the viewership?
We tried
to test this hypothesis via the grid test:
Hypothesis: Every time the channel availability goes up
in the P/C/S band, there should be a proportionate increase
in viewers for the channel also.
Grid Test:
The week-wise
channel availability data in the P/C/S band and the viewership
data for 1 min+ were split across three quartiles (Top,
Middle & Bottom) and arranged in a 3 x 3 matrix.
Under ideal conditions, all data points should accumulate
across the diagonal of the matrix i.e: Higher availability
meant higher viewership
Medium availability
meant medium viewership
Lower availability meant low viewership. Thus, since we
are taking the past 21 weeks for the test under ideal
conditions (see chart immediately below): |
image
Thus under ideal conditions, X + Y + Z = 21 Does reality
follow ideal conditions? (See chart immediately below)
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From
the chart on the previous page it is clear that 66 per
cent of the weeks follow our hypothesis!
It might be interesting to see the status in the interior
markets — in this case the Rest of Maharashtra market.
Given that the
B/W-Colour TV ratio is much more in favour of B/W than
Mumbai, one would expect that the correlation coefficient
is skewed towards the P/C band, and this is exactly what
happens.
We saw in the study for metros that the S-Band was driving
the current viewers of Channel A and B. Is the case the
same for the interior markets, in this case the Rest of
Maharashtra market as well?
The above table clearly shows that in smaller markets,
the focus should be on delivering the channel in the P/C
band. In fact, this will also help in driving viewership
among lower SECs and avoiding the higher SEC skew, thus
appealing to a broader range of advertisers who may want
to reach out to a broader audience.
Viewership-Availability for Channel 1
Drop in channel
availability has resulted in a viewership drop as well
(see graph above).
From Weeks 27 to 35, one sees some activity in the Prime
band, notably in the 34th week. The drop in availability
in the prime band has not resulted in the availability
increasing in other bands (inventory getting pushed into
higher frequency bands), thus resulting in a loss in viewership.
From Week 35 onwards, the story in the Prime band is that
of stability. However, now the activity is seen in the
higher frequency bands where the availability has come
down, thus resulting in a further loss in viewership.
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A
lot of time and energy in a television channel is spent
on the programming aspect without sufficient emphasis
being placed on the distribution aspect
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Viewership-Availability
for Channel 2 (see graph below)
While earlier
it was seen that loss of availability in the higher bands
as well plagued Channel 1, it is seen in the following
graph that Channel 2 has gained from this loss. Consequently,
availability of Channel 2 has increased when Channel 1’s
availability has decreased (Weeks 42-45).
While the above models are a simple way of studying the
availability of a channel and its relationship to viewership,
it is possible to build in availability and program content
along with viewership into a robust forecasting model.
In Conclusion
The years to
come will see increased competition. While channels are
all out to grab their share of viewership, it is important
to realise the role that distribution plays and will play.
All in all, the more niche the channel, the more the need
to get better connected. There is also a north-south divide
here in the sense that on the whole, the south sees a
lot more competition and hence channels need a lot more
focus there in distribution efforts. Studies by TAM also
show that new channels have posed a serious threat to
established players in a market purely on the basis of
their distribution. Of course it is not that the new player
was new in the channel business but new in the sense of
adding onto its channel bouquet by way of a regional channel
thus, enabling the player to get a better deal form the
cable operator by bundling the channels together. |
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